- Verdict
- Excellent
- Coins in the cashier
- 13
- Payout ceiling
- from 5,000 USD in instalments cl. 11.5
- ID can be requested
- US$2,500
Turn a price into a probability and see what the book keeps
Tool · Probability
One price becomes a percentage; a full market becomes a book total, an overround and a fair price for every outcome. This page explains each figure the calculator prints and what a coin cashier adds to the break-even point.
Written by: Priya Lakshmanan·Checked by: Callum Reddaway·Updated
An implied probability calculator answers one question: what chance does this price say the outcome has? Type a price and the tool below turns it into a percentage. Type every price in a market and it adds them up, shows how far the total runs over 100 per cent, and works out a fair price for each outcome with the sportsbook's share taken out.
Implied probability calculator
Enter one price to see the chance it implies. Enter every outcome of a market to see the book total, the margin and the fair price of each outcome.
6 sportsbooks, those that publish an ID threshold first
- Verdict
- Excellent
- Coins in the cashier
- in cashier
- Payout ceiling
- 1,000,000 USDT per week cl. 6.10
- ID can be requested
- 2,500 EUR
- Verdict
- Excellent
- Coins in the cashier
- 6
- Payout ceiling
- from 50,000 USDT in instalments cl. 8.8
- ID can be requested
- case by case
- Verdict
- Excellent
- Coins in the cashier
- 9+
- Payout ceiling
- not published
- ID can be requested
- case by case
- Verdict
- Excellent
- Coins in the cashier
- 12
- Payout ceiling
- US$100,000 per week cl. 9.6
- ID can be requested
- case by case
- Verdict
- Excellent
- Coins in the cashier
- 9+
- Payout ceiling
- not published
- ID can be requested
- case by case
From a price to a percentage
The rule is one division. Implied probability equals 1 divided by the decimal odds. A price of 2.50 implies 40 per cent; 1.25 implies 80 per cent; 11.00 implies a little over 9 per cent. The bigger the number on the slip, the smaller the chance the book is willing to admit.
Other formats need one step more, and the implied probability calculator takes them as typed:
| Price as shown | How to get the chance | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (decimal) | 1 ÷ 2.50 | 40% |
| 4/1 (fractional) | 1 ÷ (4 + 1) | 20% |
| +300 (American) | 100 ÷ (300 + 100) | 25% |
| -150 (American) | 150 ÷ (150 + 100) | 60% |
Read the result carefully. It is the chance the price implies with the margin still inside it, not the true chance of the outcome and not the bookmaker's private estimate. It is also the break-even rate: a bettor who backs outcomes at 2.50 must win 40 per cent of those bets just to end level.
Adding up a market: the book total
A single price says little about how much the book charges. The whole market does. Set the implied probability calculator to two outcomes and it opens on an example two-way market, a tennis match winner priced at 1.83 and 2.02. These are example prices, not quotes from any site.
- 1 ÷ 1.83 = 54.64 per cent
- 1 ÷ 2.02 = 49.50 per cent
- Book total: 104.15 per cent
Two outcomes that cover every possibility should add to exactly 100. The 4.15 points above it are the overround. The calculator also shows the margin as a share of stakes, 3.98 per cent here: if money came in on both sides in proportion to the prices, the book would pay back 96.02 of every 100 staked and keep the rest whoever wins. Both numbers describe the same price; the second is the one to use when you think about cost per bet.
A three-way football market works the same way with one more row. Take example prices of 2.45, 3.30 and 3.05: they imply 40.82, 30.30 and 32.79 per cent, a book total of 103.91. The lower that total, the less you pay for the bet, and comparing it across books for the same market is the quickest way to find the cheaper price. The board of crypto betting sites with the best odds is built on exactly that measurement.
Fair odds: taking the margin out
The table under the implied probability calculator's results spreads the overround across the outcomes in proportion to their prices. In the tennis example the fair probabilities come out at 52.47 and 47.53 per cent, and the fair odds at 1.91 and 2.10, against the 1.83 and 2.02 actually offered. The gap between 1.83 and 1.91 is what the favourite's backer pays for the bet.
Proportional removal is an estimate, and the calculator says so. Bookmakers often load more of the margin onto the longer price, because casual money tends to land on outsiders. Where that happens, the favourite's real fair price sits closer to the quoted one, and the outsider's further away. The method is still useful for comparison, as long as the same method is used on both books.
SportsbookDeposit in USDT, BTC or ETH and bet the same dayPlace a bet18+ · the operator's terms apply to every betProbability back to a price
The third box of the implied probability calculator runs the other way. Type a percentage and the calculator prints the decimal, fractional and American odds for that chance: 40 per cent becomes 2.50, 3/2 and +150.
This is the box to use when you have your own view. Suppose your reading of a match gives the home side 45 per cent. The price that only breaks even at that chance is 2.22; anything shorter is a bet you expect to lose over time, anything longer is one where your estimate, if right, beats the book. Whether your estimate is right is a separate matter, and most bettors overrate their own numbers. The odds calculator shows what that price returns on the stake you have in mind.
Pre-matchFootball, cricket, tennis and racing, priced before the startFund the account in USDT, BTC or ETH and build a single or an accumulator on this week's fixtures.Bet nowIn playMarkets that move with the match, and cash-out where offeredPrices update as the game runs; the same balance covers the casino side of the account.Bet live
Markets with many outcomes
The more outcomes a market has, the more room there is for margin, because every runner carries a slice. A golf or racing outright with dozens of names usually adds up far above a two-way match price. The implied probability calculator takes up to eight prices; for a bigger field, add the eight you care about and remember the total covers only part of the market.
Prediction-style contracts are the same idea in plainer form. A contract priced at 0.40 pays 1 if the event happens, so the price is already the implied probability. The page on crypto prediction market betting sites explains how the bid and ask on those contracts play the part of the overround.
On American sports the arithmetic carries over to the spread. A point spread priced at 1.91 on each side adds up to 104.71 per cent, which is why the standard line on crypto NFL betting costs a little under 5 per cent of stakes. The same is true of the three-way match result in crypto football betting, where the draw takes a share of the book on every fixture.
What a coin cashier adds to the break-even point
The price implies the same chance in tether, bitcoin or any other coin. The cost of moving the coin does not show in the odds, and it moves your break-even rate.
An example: a 10 USDT stake at 2.00 implies 50 per cent. If the withdrawal costs 0.50 USDT in network fees, a win returns 20 USDT on the slip but 19.50 USDT in the wallet. The break-even chance becomes 10 ÷ 19.50, or about 51.28 per cent. On a stake of 1,000 USDT the same fee barely moves the figure. Small, frequent withdrawals cost more in probability than large, occasional ones.
A bitcoin balance adds a different variable. The coin price moves between the bet and the withdrawal, which no implied probability can price in. For a bettor whose numbers are in dollars, a stablecoin keeps the calculator's percentages close to what actually happens to the bankroll.
Common misreadings
- Treating the implied probability as the true chance. It includes the margin, so it overstates every outcome a little.
- Adding prices from two different books. A total below 100 per cent is then possible, and it is not a margin but an arbitrage; the arbitrage calculator handles that case.
- Forgetting the minus sign on American odds. -150 implies 60 per cent; +150 implies 40.
- Comparing books on different markets. A match winner and a handicap on the same game are different bets with different margins.
The comparison of crypto betting platforms on the home page covers what the odds do not: how each cashier pays and how quickly.
How do I convert odds to implied probability?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds and multiply by 100. A price of 2.50 implies 40 per cent and 1.83 implies 54.64 per cent. For fractional odds a/b the chance is b divided by a plus b, so 4/1 is 20 per cent.
Why do the implied probabilities of a market add up to more than 100 per cent?
Because each price has the sportsbook's margin built in. A two-way market at 1.83 and 2.02 adds up to 104.15 per cent; the 4.15 points above 100 are the overround, which is how the book earns whichever side wins.
What is the difference between overround and margin?
Overround is the excess of the book total over 100 per cent. Margin as a share of stakes is the part of every 100 staked that the book keeps if money arrives in proportion to the prices. At a book total of 104.15 per cent the overround is 4.15 per cent and the margin 3.98 per cent.
Are fair odds the true chance of an outcome?
No. They are the prices with the margin spread evenly across the outcomes, which is an estimate. Books often load more margin onto the outsider, so the favourite's fair price is usually closer to the quoted one than the calculation suggests.
Does betting in crypto change the implied probability?
The price implies the same chance in any coin. What changes is your break-even rate once network fees are counted: a 10 USDT stake at 2.00 with a 0.50 USDT fee on the way out has to win about 51.28 per cent of the time, not 50, to break even.